Via Governing Magazine and Lou Jacobson
This fall’s legislative elections — the last before the start of a new once-every-decade redistricting process — are unique for two reasons. According to this author’s estimates, more chambers are in play this year than in any cycle since at least 2002. Even more strikingly, the Democrats have vastly more at risk than the Republicans do.
“This is going to be an extremely challenging year for Democrats for a variety of reasons,” says Tim Storey, who analyzes elections for the National Conference of State Legislatures. “History is not on their side. Since 1900, the party in the White House loses seats in the legislature in every midterm except for 1934 and 2002. That’s a 2-25 losing streak for the party in the White House — a tough trend to break. Add to that the fact that Democrats are riding high right now at over 55 percent of all seats, and it shapes up to be possibly the worst election for Democrats since 1994.”