Nathan Gonzales writes in the latest The Rothenberg Political Report that “Democrats couldn’t have picked a worse year to get hit with a political wave at the state level” noting “The surge of 2010 puts Republicans in total control of redrawing congressional maps for more than 40 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives.”
For months, Democratic strategists privately expressed concern that the party had the expertise and resources to stem the GOP tide in some federal races, but there wasn’t enough attention on races further down the ballot. Their nightmare came true on Tuesday.
The GOP picked up 19 chambers, giving it control of 56 out of 98 partisan legislative chambers in the country. More important, Republicans control both chambers in 26 states (up from 15 before the election), including some key redistricting states. In 20 of those states they also control the governorship.
“Of the 18 states that are going to gain or lose seats in reapportionment, Republicans now have majorities in 10 of those states,” said Ed Gillespie, chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee, who predicted that the GOP could gain 15 to 25 House seats through redistricting.
Every state will redraw its congressional map, even if it doesn’t gain or lose a seat due to population growth or loss. In most states, the legislature is in charge of drawing the lines, and in 39 states it has the power to veto a new map or the authority to appoint a redistricting commission.
“If you are a political party, you never want to have a really bad election,” said veteran political handicapper Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. “But if you’re gonna have one, you really don’t want to have it in a year that ends in a zero.”
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