Bob Benenson of CQ-Roll looks at the latest reapportionment projections:
The country’s balance of population, and hence its balance of political power, continues to shift to the South and West, as it has for the past six decades. The census figures being released in December, which will decide the reapportionment of House seats among the states starting with the 2012 election, will probably show less dramatic changes than in the recent past. But they also could upend much of the advance planning of the nation’s political mapmakers, if the final and official count varies even a little from current projections.
Texas clearly will be the big winner and stands to gain as many as four seats, due in large part to its fast-growing Hispanic population. But it could be limited to a three-seat gain if the state’s population surge proves to be just 38,005 smaller (in a population of 25.3 million) than expected. And similarly minuscule differences — in relative terms, at least — could make the difference for as many as 16 states that might gain, retain or lose congressional seats.