Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.
In this week’s big edition of the Rundown: Independent analysts suggest surge could be even bigger than GOP claims, How this affects ’12, Sabato says “most significant Democratic disasters” will be on state level, Fixed, Triage time, The turnout gap, The gift that keeps on giving the whole decade, Ohio “swingiest of the swing states” and Indian has bad news for Dems …
Michael Cooper at the New York Times writes, “The midterm elections are being closely watched to determine whether Republicans will have a majority in Congress for the next two years. But it is the outcome of a lower-profile battle over state legislatures that could strengthen the Republican Party for a decade. Republicans are within reach of gaining control of eight or more chambers in state legislatures this fall, according to interviews with Republicans, Democrats and independent political analysts. … For Democrats, the prospect of legislative losses could not come at a worse time. … Republicans are predicting that they will gain at least 10 chambers this fall, which they say would give them the power to redraw up to 25 Congressional districts. ‘That will have a huge impact down the line,’ said Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican Party who now runs [the RSLC]. ‘Not just on taxes, schools and roads and the important business of state government, but also in terms of representation for a decade in Congress.’ Some independent analysts suggest that the Republican surge could be even greater.”
Jumping past this year’s surge, Hotline On Call reports, “There has been — and will be — plenty of discussion whether Democrats can hold on to the House and the Senate this year and what that will mean for Pres. Obama’s re-election prospects in ’12. But for a better indication of how Obama ’12 chances, it is worth watching the most competitive state legislature races this fall. … ‘[Democrats] will be very lucky if they hang on to a single chamber that they [say lie squarely in Obama’s re-election roadmap],” said Chris Jankowski, the Executive Director of the GOP’s “REDMAP” redistricting program. … ‘We can confidently say that Republicans are not going to lose a single chamber,’ Jankowski said. Jankowski added that Republicans are in position to go after Obama’s base. ‘Every district we’ll play in was won by Obama,’ he said. That, Jankowski said, will pose problems for Obama in ’12 … The RSLC will focus on providing grassroots, field and messaging support. If the election breaks the GOP’s way, these races will present an uphill climb for Obama. ‘When you couple that with the wave of new Republican governors, then you’ll have a very solid Republican field team in states that are going to be swing states — they have to contested by both presidential candidates,’ Jankowski said. ‘For Obama, they will be his path to re-election.’”
“Will President Obama’s midterm campaign push help the Democrats?” The Washington Post to UVA’s political prognosticator Larry Sabato who thinks, “Presidents like to believe that their work can tame the seas. But when fierce political winds build a towering wave, even a presidential-size yacht can be capsized. … The most significant Democratic disasters will likely come at the state level. On the eve of redistricting, Republicans will gain perhaps eight governorships, 400 to 500 state legislators and eight to 14 new state legislative chambers.”
The Fix’s Aaron Blake takes a look at “The top eight redistricting battles of 2010.”
“Triage Time For Democrats: There is no shortage of bad news for Democrats these days,” says Charlie Cook. “One expert on state legislative races privately put the over/under at 500 seats nationwide. In other words, Republicans are equally likely to gain more than 500 seats as they are to gain fewer. The GOP will probably also win control of many statehouse chambers, which will have an obvious impact on congressional and state legislative redistricting next year. That’s a big deal.”
“When you start to look at it state by state, if there’s a big Republican wave election in November, the advantage for the Republicans in the redistricting would be fairly dramatic,” the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Tim Storey tells NPR. “‘They could find that they have almost unilateral authority to draw about 160 U.S. House seats.’ That Republican wave is looking more and more likely. A recent study by Curtis Gans, the director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, shows that Republicans are already showing up to the polls in greater numbers than ever before. ‘The turnout gap is 4 million people,’ Gans tells Raz. ‘It is the first time since 1930 that Republican turnout has exceeded Democratic.’ While Republican voters are turning out in historically high numbers, Democrats are hitting historic lows. … This lack of enthusiasm could have a lasting effect on congressional politics for a decade to come.”
The Los Angeles Times reports, “Generally speaking, strategists say, campaign budgets will double in targeted races compared with non-redistricting years. ‘Whoever has the pen in hand has the opportunity,’ said Thomas M. Reynolds, a former congressman and vice chairman of the [RSLC]. ‘It is a gift that will keep on giving,’ Ed Gillespie, head of the RSLC, told a Washington gathering of potential donors. He suggested that $1 spent today on drawing a safe congressional seat would save many times the cost of winning a competitive race later. ‘This is one of the best investments you can make.’”
Agence France-Presse has a brief primer on redistricting for our worldwide friends. “President Barack Obama’s Democratic allies and Republican foes are battling over a once-in-a-decade prize in November mid-term elections: power to literally redraw the US political map. … The November 2 elections will decide which party controls key state legislatures and governorships that typically carry out the task of redrawing a state’s congressional districts … ‘The redistricting process has a large impact on whether or not any given seat is contestable,’ said Justin Buchler, an expert on redistricting who teaches political science at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio.”
Speaking of the Buckeye State, PoliticsDaily.com labels it the “swingiest of swing states” saying, “right now, the advantage that Democrats won in 2008 with Barack Obama’s victory and the pickup of U.S. and state House seats is seriously threatened. Republicans also seem poised to take back the state House and hold onto their majority in the state Senate. If they control the governorship and both houses of the state Legislature as well as a majority of congressional seats, it would have a major impact on the redistricting of the state following this year’s census, when Ohio is expected to lose two U.S. House seats. And that could have a spillover effect in 2012.”
And in Indiana, Hoosier political godfather, Jack Colwell, writes, “Republicans almost certainly will do all the redistricting in Indiana. For congressional districts. For the Indiana House. For the Indiana Senate. And that’s bad news for Democrats for a decade. In most states, including Indiana, state legislatures do the redrawing of districts every 10 years. While there are close battles in some states, as Democrats try to keep Republicans from taking control of more state legislative chambers amidst a Republican tide, the battle already is over in Indiana at least for drawing congressional and Indiana Senate districts and, unless there is a monumental political turnaround, for the Indiana House as well. This November, with that expected Republican tide in a Republican-leaning state and with the governor deeply involved in recruiting and funding GOP candidates, it is highly unlikely that Democrats can retain a House majority. Republicans then could draw the House districts and negate any need for a commission for congressional districts by joining with Senate Republicans in that remap. Result: Bad news for Democrats, not just on Nov. 2, but for a decade.”
The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.