Republican State Leadership Committee We Can Change Congress

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From Michael Cooper at the New York Times

Republicans are within reach of gaining control of eight or more chambers in statehouses around the country this fall, according to interviews with Republicans, Democrats and independent political analysts. That would give Republicans the power to draw more Congressional districts in their favor, since the expected gains come just as many legislatures will play a major role in the once-a-decade process of redrawing the boundaries of those districts.

Republicans said they expected to win control of House chambers in Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the State Senate in Wisconsin, and saw at least a dozen other states where they have a reasonable chance of winning control of legislative chambers. Democrats acknowledge that they will be fighting to preserve their slim majorities in at least 10 chambers — including State Senates in Nevada, New Hampshire and New York — but say that they see opportunities to gain control of chambers in four other states.

Redistricting, it has often been said, turns the traditional definition of democracy on its head: rather than allowing voters to choose their leaders, it allows leaders to choose their voters.

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Last Updated on Tuesday, 7 September 2010 02:53

From the Michigan Messenger

Last week’s unexpected resignation by Justice Elizabeth Weaver, a Republican, and subsequent replacement by Justice Alton Thomas Davis, a Democrat, may not only reshape the Michigan Supreme Court, it could change the entire electoral map of the state for the next ten years.

Next year when the 2010 census data is released Michigan’s political boundaries will be redrawn by the legislature, and if they cannot agree on the redistricting map then the state Supreme Court will take up the matter. Because the shape of districts has an enormous effect on who can get elected, observers are already speculating on what last week’s abrupt resignation might mean for that process.

Bob LaBrant of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce told columnist Peter Luke that the change on the court “puts the Democrats in the driver’s seat as far as redistricting is concerned. (Weaver) would have been a question mark, but that question mark has been removed.”

The term that Davis was appointed to fill only runs through this year, but he has already been nominated for reelection by the Democrats, and he will have an advantage over others because he will be designated on the ballot as an incumbent.

But Richard McLelland is a Michigan State University professor of public relations and practicing attorney with expertise in government ethics, lobbying regulation and campaign finance issues, tells the Michigan Messenger that Granholm’s appointment of Davis was dirty dealing that may damage Davis’ candidacy this fall.

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Last Updated on Wednesday, 1 September 2010 09:55

From the Daily Tribune

But 10 years ago in Michigan, Republicans controlled the state House, Senate and governor’s office, and they drew the current district boundaries to their liking with little risk of legal challenge to their map.

That’s not the case this year, when Democrats control the state House and governor’s office, and Republicans control the state Senate.

And that’s why state legislative races have gotten a lot of attention this year.

A split in control of the House and Senate means the courts likely will decide on a redistricting plan, as was the case 20 years ago, making election to the state’s courts an election priority this year, too.

In Michigan and across the country, the outcome of state legislative races could well determine the makeup of Congress in the 2012 election and beyond.

For certain, Michigan stands to lose one of its congressional seats this year, not because the state has lost so much in population over the past decade – it has lost a little – but because other states have grown so much faster.

“Michigan has lost population,” Patterson said. “When I started, there were 19 congressional seats, I think we’re going down now to 14.”

Control of the state Legislature could influence whether Michigan’s remaining congressional seats lean toward the Democrats or toward the Republicans.

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Last Updated on Wednesday, 1 September 2010 06:59

From Michael Barone

Eighteen months ago, it looked like Democrats were going to profit from redistricting. An optimistic scenario for Democrats, extrapolating from the 2008 election results, was that if they could gain three governorships and three state senates and otherwise hold what they had, they would control redistricting in 14 states with more than five districts, including California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina and New Jersey.

Those states are projected to have 195 districts in the House elected in 2012. Clever redistricting could move between one and two dozen into the Democratic column. That would have been the Democrats’ best redistricting cycle since the one following the 1980 Census.

But that scenario now is the stuff of dreams. Democrats are threatened with losing many governorships and legislative chambers, and their chances of taking over many from the Republicans look dismal.

Instead, the optimistic scenario belongs to the Republicans. If they hold what they have and capture a few governorships (Ohio, Tennessee, Wisconsin) and a few legislative chambers (the Houses in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and both houses in Wisconsin), they will control redistricting in 11 states with more than five House seats, including Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Those states are projected to have 178 House seats.

This would be an even better redistricting cycle for Republicans than the one following the 2000 Census, which was their best in 50 years. It could move one to two dozen House seats into the Republican column.

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Last Updated on Friday, 27 August 2010 10:55

From the Richmond Times Dispatch

Population shifts portend a potentially dramatic redesign of congressional districts in Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia, Southside and the far Southwest.

The new boundaries could render the seats more friendly or hostile to their current occupants.

An analysis by the research arm of the General Assembly, which will redraw congressional and legislative lines next year, shows that six of the state’s 11 U.S. House seats will take in more territory because of declines in population.

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Last Updated on Wednesday, 25 August 2010 09:58